Which World?: Scenarios for the 21st Century
Author: Allen Hammond
<p>In Which World?, scientist Allen Hammond imaginatively probes the consequences of present social, economic, and environmental trends to construct three possible worlds that could await us in the twenty-first century: Market World, in which economic and human progress is driven by the liberating power of free markets and human initiative; Fortress World, in which unattended social and environmental problems diminish progress, dooming hundreds of millions of humans to lives of rising conflict and violence; and Transformed World, in which human ingenuity and compassion succeed in offering a better life, not just a wealthier one, and in seeking to extend those benefits to all of humanity.<p>"Hammond's credo, 'to envision the future we want and then set about making it happen,' is a thinking person's call to arms. ..... By bringing together an ambitious set of data, lively scenarios, and provocative claims, Hammond seeks to reorient and reenergize public conversation about sustainable development and the strategies of peoples and institutions. It is a vital conversation, and this is a notable contribution to it." Kai N. Lee, Environmen.<p>"Hammond offers an excellent contribution to the growing literature on the human predicament and the challenge of sustaining the Earth's legacy. The book will open the eyes of the ignorant, and fulfill its purpose of stimulating further thought and action." Carl Folke, Scienc.<p>"In Which World?, Allen Hammond offers both knowledge and vision. He presents a lucid and incisive guide to the trends with which we have to work, and the possibilities they offer." Stephen Schmidheiny, founder of the World Business Council for Sustainable Developmen.<p>"Fascinating and thought-provoking." Library Journal
Library Journal
Hammond (director, Strategic Analysis, World Resources Inst.) bases the title of this work on the results of the 2050 Project, a joint research program of the Brookings Institution, the World Resources Institute, and the Sante Fe Institute. Given the fairly liberal bent of these organizations, it is not surprising that the most enlightened and socially productive path centers around the "Transformed World" scenario, which requires some enlightened social engineering, significant environmental payoffs, and enlightened self-interest among international market forces. The other two scenarios are "Market World" and "Fortress World." Market World pictures a number of positive social and economic indicators but also significant degradation of environmental quality. Fortress World imagines a world beset by massive social and economic unrest and inequalities, dwindling natural resources, and less tolerant governments. The book concludes with surveys of seven major global regions and how each of the three scenarios could play out there. Hammond quite correctly sees elements of all three scenarios in world economic, social, environmental, and security trends. Fascinating and thought-provoking, this is an excellent choice for all academic and larger public libraries.--Stephen W. Green, Auraria Lib., Denver
Table of Contents:
Preface | ||
Acknowledgments | ||
Pt. I | Looking Ahead | |
Ch. 1 | Thinking About the Future | 3 |
Ch. 2 | The Power of Scenarios | 13 |
Pt. II | Three World Views | |
Ch. 3 | Market World: A New Golden Age of Prosperity? | 26 |
Ch. 4 | Fortress World: Instability and Violence? | 37 |
Ch. 5 | Transformed World: Changing the Human Endeavor? | 47 |
Pt. III | Trends That Shape Our Future | |
Ch. 6 | Critical Trends: Demographic, Economic, and Technological | 66 |
Ch. 7 | Critical Environmental Trends | 87 |
Ch. 8 | Critical Security Trends | 102 |
Ch. 9 | Critical Social and Political Trends | 115 |
Pt. IV | Regional Choices | |
Ch. 10 | Latin America: Equitable Growth or Instability? | 130 |
Ch. 11 | China and Southeast Asia: Can the Asian Miracle Continue? | 148 |
Ch. 12 | India: A Second Independence? | 172 |
Ch. 13 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Transformation or Tragedy? | 187 |
Ch. 14 | North Africa and the Middle East: Autocracy Forever? | 201 |
Ch. 15 | Russia and Eastern Europe: Transition to What? | 213 |
Ch. 16 | North America, Europe, and Japan: Leadership or Stagnation? | 223 |
Pt. V | Global Destinies | |
Ch. 17 | Choosing Our Future | 239 |
Which World? On-line: A HyperForum on the Future | 253 | |
App | Regions and Projections: The Details | 255 |
Notes | 269 | |
Index | 293 |
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Kiplinger's Practical Guide to Your Money: Keep More of It, Make It Grow, Enjoy It, Protect It, Pass It On
Author: Kiplingers personal finance magazine editors
Kiplinger's Practical Guide to Your Money covers every one of life's financial milestones in detail-from renting or buying a home, purchasing life insurance, and sizing up banks and credit unions, to marrying, paying for a child's education, and planning for retirement-making this the most exhaustive handbook on the market. What's more, Kiplinger's Web site, kiplinger.com, complements the guide by providing all the latest tax code information. When it comes to money, the editors of Kiplinger's Personal Finance contend that people should be able to keep more of it, make it grow, enjoy it, protect it, and pass it on. Equipped with their sound advice, readers will assume responsibility for their financial futures, so that they can gain and maintain greater financial independence.
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